I remember when $SBET launched, I was debating with a friend whether buying SBET was a better deal than outright ETH I was pretty confident that buying SBET there was potentially dangerous because the mNAV was 6x - If you had bought $ETH on that day, you would be up 80% today - But if you had bought $SBET on that day, you would still be down between -40% and -60% That being said, so many unpredictable and irrational things happened in between : - $SBET first went up 3x to touch $120, and probably traded close to 20x mNAV at some point - It then went down -73% when the euphoria settled down, BEFORE dumping another -75% in one hour when they announced that early investors shares were unlocked - Then it traded flat around $10 at a very attractive mNAV for almost 3 weeks - And then pumped almost 5x in 2 weeks, as $ETH also began its run to $4800 - SBET is now down -50% from its local top, while $ETH is up +25% in the same timeframe $SBET (and treasury companies in general) can go very quickly from OVER-VALUED to UNDER-VALUED, and people will want to buy to buy it at the tops and selling at the bottoms. The mNAV of these companies can very well go close to 1 and then bounce hard, you shouldn't over-index on the most recent PA because this might be very misleading. Hold your convictions loosely on these instruments

Irrespective of your view on MSTR, it’s useful to see how the market behaves when Saylor isn’t buying, AND when no one expects him to. Good stress test for BTC. Overall it's obviously healthier for BTC if we don't have to rely on one single buyer to push it

The only thing I'm certain about with regards to this chart is that you should never use it as a bull case for $ETH

Each time you see some FUD about MSTR being a Ponzi or "running out of money" Just remember that if CT had been talking about $MSTR back when the ETFs launched, they would have sworn the mNAV had to compress down to 1 (It went up 2x instead, and MSTR is up 6x from there)

*crypto guy who made most of his money from private token deals and insider information wants to tell you why a public equity listed on a US exchange is a ponzi scam

How likely is BitMine to rebrand soon It looks stupid to have a bitcoin mining name when you're the leading $ETH treasury company lmao

In 45 minutes, Saylor will announce how much $BTC he purchased last week Probably a tiny weeny amount once again

A bull case for $ETH here is that I'm still very bullish on $BTC and the ETF flows have recently been massive for ETH compared to BTC, so I don't think tradfi suddenly stops buying it

Consolidation into the winner $ETH DAT

I am frustrated that I didn't de-risk enough when $ETH was flirting with previous ATH and 0.04 ETHBTC, especially given the fact that it under-performed altcoins heavily since then I am long here but we're basically hoping that tradfi keeps buying ETH The problem is that if we're wrong, the downside is much larger than on BTC