LUKE GROMEN SAYS NO ONE HAS ACCURATELY DESCRIBED HIS NEAR-TERM BEARISH STANCE ON BITCOIN So here it is, line by line: • Gromen says he sold most, but not all, of his Bitcoin. • He argues most people misunderstand why he is bearish. • He says his thesis that Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm of global liquidity has been proven right. • What was proven wrong, for now, is Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset in deflation. • In deflation, Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock. • In other words, Bitcoin behaves like equity, not cash or gold. • The global economy is extremely leveraged. • In any leveraged system, deflation hits the equity tranche first. • Bitcoin, in Gromen’s framework, is the equity tranche. • AI and robotics are enforcing accelerating, exponential deflation. • Productivity gains overwhelm anything short of extreme money printing. • Without “nuclear printing,” deflation dominates. • When deflation dominates, equity prices fall. • Because Bitcoin trades like equity, Bitcoin falls. • Gromen does not think nuclear printing is coming soon. • He thinks sentiment on Bitcoin remains extremely bullish because of all the hate he has gotten for selling. • Long term, he is still bullish on Bitcoin. • He still expects deflation to eventually force the 'nuclear printing'. • His mistake was timing the policy response too early. • Until that response arrives, he believes Bitcoin is vulnerable.