Many people think that high traffic occurs when the market is good, but that's actually wrong. Traffic is higher when the market is down because everyone wants to find reasons through social media. So creating panic can generate traffic. In April, I had an argument with someone because I believed he was creating panic. The chart below aims to show that the credit card 90-day delinquency rate is close to that of 2008, but if you flip a page back, you'll see that the 30-day delinquency rate has remained stable and has decreased for two consecutive quarters. In March and April, too many people were glorified for shorting early. There are even foreigners who speak Chinese; for example, there’s a guy named Ke Song who successfully predicted the decline in March and April, but he also said that the Federal Reserve would start QE in June and that the U.S. stock market wouldn't reach new highs. Looking at it from the present, all of that is wrong. So there are no gods in the market; everyone can be wrong. The U.S. stock market has long bull and short bear phases, so most of the time, one should have positions while considering risks rather than being in cash and thinking about risks.

Looking back carefully, it seems that most of the financial reports this quarter have said very well, no issues: META, AMZN, DIS, AMD, GEV, BAC, TSLA, AAPL, etc. The only ones I have some hesitation about are: 1. GOOG, I think CHATGPT hasn't opened up advertising yet, so the real impact on search revenue hasn't been reflected. 2. UNH, before the earnings report, I thought it was a MESS, but after the report, I believe there is a 20% upside potential in the next three years, although the short-term uncertainty is still hard to estimate. Seems like that's it...

It seems that BTC is shining this week? What do you mean that only big tech is rising is unhealthy? This kind of viewpoint has no data to support it. I remember those guys from CNBC often saying this in 2023, especially that chief economist from Sofi.

I heard a bold statement: Powell knows the economy is bad, and once he lowers interest rates, there will be a triple kill of the dollar, U.S. bonds, and U.S. stocks. Powell is not acting for independence, but for himself; the U.S. economy is currently in poor shape. What do you think?

Everyone may have been scared by 2022, but when institutions are allocating assets and considering which assets can hedge against inflation risk, the stock market is actually one of them in the long run.

I just listened to an interview with LACY HUNT, a renowned economist, and here are some summarized points: 1. The annualized tariff volume is currently at $350 billion, while companies have only paid over $500 billion in total taxes in 2024, so don't underestimate the revenue from tariffs; it's significant. 2. The first-order effect of tariffs is inflation, but the subsequent second-order and third-order effects are deflationary, as they severely squeeze demand. 3. The second-order squeeze includes foreign investment in the U.S.; when tariffs reduce the trade surplus of foreign countries with the U.S., naturally, their investment in the U.S. will also decrease (such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, etc.). 4. The second-order effect will put significant pressure on liquidity, while the Federal Reserve is still reducing its balance sheet. LACY HUNT believes the Fed needs to use QE to counter the second-order effects and provide liquidity to the market. 5. From a fiscal stimulus perspective, Trump's Great American Plan only adds an extra $50 billion a year, which is insufficient to meet the demand for liquidity. Finally, here are some of my thoughts. I can't help but admire the perspective economists have when viewing issues from a higher vantage point. Let's change our thinking: the U.S. government has increased fiscal revenue by $300-400 billion due to tariffs, and this money must come from somewhere in the world (it could be from Chinese exporters, U.S. import companies, retailers like Walmart, or each of us consumers). So from this angle, its global impact is to contract liquidity; of course, the U.S. government can redistribute it (through additional fiscal stimulus). Therefore, I somewhat agree with Bessenet's viewpoint: everyone says tariffs have an inflationary effect, and the tax cuts from the Great American Plan also have an inflationary effect; these two viewpoints are contradictory. Tariffs are essentially tax increases, while the Great American Plan is a tax cut.

Recession? Just now, a "friend" of mine shared with me the consumption data for July that he saw: 1. There was a slight slowdown in April and May, but the growth rate returned in June and was even stronger in July, with a growth rate of 5-5.5% compared to the same period last year, including credit cards, debit cards, checks, ZELLE payments, and ATM cash all together. 2. Interestingly, fast food has a slightly higher growth rate compared to upscale restaurants; clothing is strong due to summer; entertainment is robust; airfares have come back a bit. There are indeed many details, but overall, people are still spending. This is not a small sample, with $25 trillion in consumption. 3. How do you view the use of money—through borrowing or pulling from bank accounts? Credit quality is very strong, and the industry is doing well; there is actually a lot of room for borrowing. The space for HOME EQUITY LOAN is still 30% lower compared to before the pandemic, while housing prices have risen, so there is a lot of borrowing capacity, and delinquency rates are good and trending down. 4. Middle-income families are relatively tight, and GEN Z's spending growth has slowed, while older generations tend to spend more, so many issues are there. But I often say, "Don't listen to what people say they will do; look at what they actually do. What they are doing is still spending." 5. So what about employment? Our economists say that due to immigration issues, the supply side of the labor market has decreased significantly, which could lead to wage increases. Because of tariffs, companies have indeed slowed down hiring, but they are not laying off employees, which is often overlooked by the market. The unemployment rate is still at 4.2%. In our careers, 5.5% is considered full employment, and we can get through this. 6. Tariffs, do you think we will see them? In the past month, I have been communicating with some companies on the West Coast, and for those companies, what they want to know most is: what exactly are the tariffs? Many companies are already preparing for next year, and once certainty is established, the economy can safely get through.

It turns out that Bullard is also part of Trump's camp, a key figure among the Federal Reserve members.

FLY's IPO under the halo of RKLB

Who said to hide in the 🍎 during a bull market? Come out and apologize to me 😘